We have randomly chosen two countries for which we, along with five western governments consider at higher risk for travel; Algeria and Lebanon. We will attempt to gather some facts and findings and will analyze what it means for the traveller, along with our conclusions. We will attempt to highlight if consensus and commonality are present and what exactly constitutes their advice and/or recommendations. We will also identify if outlooks, forecasts and assessments are articulated in support of travel.
While many countries could have been selected for this blog post we have chosen Canada, the USA, France, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. For brevity's sake we have omitted hazards and will strictly focus on the risks and threats.
Note: We suggest you google translate France's advice to English.
1. ALGERIA
Canada: There is no nationwide advisory in effect for Algeria. However, you should exercise a high degree of caution due to the risk of civil unrest and the threat of terrorism. Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada (DFAIT) advises against all travel outside major urban centres in Algeria. Terrorist attacks, bandit activity and kidnappings occur in the mountainous region of Kabylia, which includes the wilayas (provinces) of Tizi Ouzou, Bouira, Boumerdes and Bejaia. Armed groups operate in the remote desert areas in the wilayas of Illizi, Tamanrasset, Adrar and Tindouf that border the countries of Niger, Mali, Mauritania and Libya, and there is a risk of terrorism, banditry and kidnapping. LAST UPDATE: 06 March 2014.
USA: The Department of State urges U.S. citizens who travel to Algeria to evaluate carefully the risks posed to their personal safety. There is a high threat of terrorism and kidnappings in Algeria. This kidnapping threat was noted in the Department of State's latest Worldwide Caution. Although the major cities are heavily policed, attacks could still potentially take place. The majority of terrorist attacks, including bombings, false roadblocks, kidnappings, and ambushes occur in areas of the country east and south of Algiers. LAST UPDATE: 06 February 2014.
France: Les déplacements sont formellement déconseillés à nos ressortissants au Sud et au centre de l’Algérie, dans la zone rouge définie par ce site (Scroll to bottom for map). Il en découle a fortiori que tout projet de se rendre au Mali, au Niger ou en Mauritanie par voie terrestre en traversant le territoire algérien est à proscrire absolument. Les déplacements sont déconseillés dans le reste du pays, sauf raison impérative. Les déplacements professionnels et touristiques sont possibles dans les villes d’Alger et de Tipasa, d’Oran et de Tlemcen, sous réserve de faire preuve d’une grande vigilance. LAST UPDATE: 20 January 2014.
United Kingdom: The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) advise against all travel to areas within 450km of the Mali and Niger borders, with the exception of Tindouf town and Tamanrasset city, 100km of the Mauritania border and 100km of the Libya and Tunisia borders south of the town of Souk Ahras. The FCO advise against all but essential travel to Tamanrasset city, In Amenas, Tindouf town, the provinces of Boumerdès, Bouira and Tizi Ouzou east of Algiers. LAST UPDATE: 04 March 2014.
New Zealand: There is extreme risk to your security in the border regions with Libya, Mauritania, Mali and Niger due to a heightened threat of terrorism and kidnapping. We advise against all travel to these areas. There is high risk to your security elsewhere in Algeria due to the threat from terrorism and kidnapping and we advise against all tourist and other non-essential travel. LAST UPDATE: 19 March 2013.
Forecasts, outlooks and assessments made: None made for the UK, New Zealand, France, Canada, or the USA.
2. LEBANON
Canada: DFAIT advises against non-essential travel to Lebanon due to heightened tensions and crime. DFAIT advises against all travel to all areas within 10 km of the border with Syria, and to the northern Bekaa Valley, from Rayak northward to the Syrian border (including Britel, Baalbek, Aarsal, Ras Baalbek, Qaa and Hermel), due to incidents linked to the conflict in Syria. DFAIT advises against all travel to the city of Tripoli, due to inter-communal violence, to the Southern suburbs of Beirut, due to the increased threat of terrorist attacks. This includes the areas from south of the Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium to the airport, and east of the main airport highway (neighborhoods of Dahieh, Ghobeiry, Chiya, Haret Hraik, Borj Al Brajne, Mraije, Rouais, and Laylake). The main highway to the airport and the airport are excluded from this advisory. DFAIT advises against all travel to areas south of the Litani River, near the border with Israel, due to military activity, to the Palestinian refugee camps, due to an unpredictable security situation and to the area of Abra in the city of Saïda, due to violent clashes between the Lebanese Armed Forces and local militias. LAST UPDATE: 21 February 2014.
USA: The Department of State urges U.S. citizens to avoid all travel to Lebanon because of current safety and security concerns. U.S. citizens living and working in Lebanon should understand that they accept risks in remaining and should carefully consider those risks. The potential for death or injury in Lebanon exists in particular due to the increasing frequency of terrorist bombing attacks throughout the country. Many of the attacks have targeted specific individuals or venues, but in all cases have resulted in death and harm to passersby in the vicinity. Although there is no evidence these attacks were directed specifically at U.S. citizens at this time, there is a real possibility of “wrong place, wrong time” harm to U.S. citizens. LAST UPDATE: 31 January 2014.
France: Compte tenu du climat d’insécurité et de la recrudescence des attentats et des tensions, tout déplacement est déconseillé sauf raison impérative dans la moitié Ouest du pays, où la vigilance renforcée et la prudence restent de mise (Scroll to bottom for map). Formellement déconseillé dans les parties Nord, Est et Sud du Liban, le long de la frontière avec la Syrie et Israël, ainsi que dans la banlieue sud de Beyrouth, qui est le théâtre d’attentats récurrents depuis l’été 2013. LAST UPDATE: 24 February 2014.
United Kingdom: The FCO advise against all travel to Tripoli, Palestinian refugee camps, within 5km of the Syrian Border, the Hermel Area, including Arsal, Baalbek, the Bekaa Valley east of the Baalbek El Hermel High Way to the Syrian border and down to En Nabi Chit, southern suburbs of Beirut east of the airport road, defined as: south of the sports stadium to the airport, to east of the main airport highway including the neighbourhoods of Ghobeiry, Chuya, Haret, Hraik, Burj Al Brajne, Mraije, Er Rouais and Laylake, southern suburbs of Beirut west of the airport road, defined as: west of the airport highway to the coast, south from Adnan El Hakim Road to Abbas El Mousawi Road. The FCO advise against all but essential travel to Bekaa Valley west of the Baalbek El Hermel High Way, Saida and south of the Litani River. LAST UPDATE: 19 February 2014.
New Zealand: There is extreme risk to your security in Tripoli, the Palestinian refugee camps, within 5km of the Syrian border, in all regions in the northern Beka’a Valley, south of the Litani River and the southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) of Beirut. We advise against all travel to these areas due to the unpredictable security situation, significant threat from terrorism and risk of kidnapping. There is high risk to your security elsewhere in Lebanon and we advise against all tourist and other non-essential travel due to the unpredictable security situation, threat from terrorism and risk of kidnapping. LAST UPDATE: 29 August 2013.
Forecasts, outlooks and assessments made: "Potential for further violence and further attacks are likely" (UK, France). "The security situation in Tripoli remains unpredictable and could change without notice" (Canada). "Sudden outbreaks of violence can occur at any time in the country" (USA). None made by New Zealand.
3. OUR TAKE
For Algeria: We find that the U.S. Dept of State advice also extended to federal employees and did also include common sense advice overall. The New Zealand government recommend that "New Zealanders in Algeria are advised to seek professional security advice before travelling."
For Lebanon: We particularly appreciate the FCO's advice; it is very detailed and very direct, all the while not being too lengthy in the information provided. The same can be said for France, the USA and Canada. Of note is New Zealand's outdated advice.
4. OUR CONCLUSION
Commonality of advice: The general concurrence for Algeria is no travel to areas bordering Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Libya. All advice is based on past events. Also, all stress the importance of keeping informed of the latest news developments (how can one enjoy his/her vacation or focus on the business trip?) and to abide to local authorities. Several recommend against all travel (this can be attributed to deliberate targeting or to be excessively prudent), while Canada and the USA do voice that travel is the sole responsibility of the travellers (meaning that travellers are left alone) to properly evaluate the associated risks. For Algeria, both terrorism and kidnappings are the common threats while the main driver for Lebanon is the poor security situation that is prevailing.
Absence of forecasting or outlooks: Absolutely no outlook is offered by all five governments besides few very non-committal judgements. Serious information gap therefore exist for travellers with clear potential for endangerment.
Requirements for professional security advice: The government of New Zealand is quite explicit about retaining professional guidance prior to travel.
Bottom Line, Up Front (BLUF): No assessments are made with regards to the likely evolution of the security situation that can directly endanger the traveller. Furthermore government advice is admittedly limited in order for travellers to remain safe while abroad and in order to return home unharmed. The perception that all advice is over cautious in nature cannot be made more obvious as governments are not in the business to assess what is likely to occur next for travellers while abroad. We recommend that you consult us prior to travel to higher risk destinations such as Algeria or Lebanon.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
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