We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past two weeks and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements.The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers.
From 28 December:
1. Cambodia update: Protests by political opposition & garment workers likely to lead to violent crackdown. Demonstrations have risen in recent weeks. We judge security forces to be used in "avoiding coup d'etat" by new gov't. High violence likely for Phnom Penh freedom park.
From 29 December:
2. We judge that in the next two weeks protests will trigger violent crackdown, triggering critical step for gov't future.
From 29 December:
2. We judge that in the next two weeks protests will trigger violent crackdown, triggering critical step for gov't future.
Comment: As of 02 January, protests continue as reported by reliable open sources. We will not sum up the origin of the protests or expand on the political ramifications but will focus on what is the likely impact to travelers there and also our assessment for the near future (30 days). Our use of the words "avoiding coup d'etat" was a quote from the government. Since garments constitute a big share of the country's income, it is viewed as
vital to the Prime Minister Sun Hen. A consequence of this fact is the violence used by security forces against the protesters which also include oppositions bodies such as the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). The Cambodian PM has been the head of government since 14 january 1985, nearly 30 years. As we get closer to 14 January, we believe that the likelihood of mounting violence is high as the overall situation is far from being resolved, as a recent offer of wage hikes were turned down. What we are particularly interested in is how the current civil unrest will affect travelers and how we can mitigate for safety. As protests can be pre announced or not we assess that travelers avoid certain areas of the city where such demonstrations occur, namely the freedom park area, sectors with a high concentration of garment factories and to avoid crowds. Collateral threat is high for foreigners when caught in those protests from Cambodian security forces.
From 29 December:
3. This morning, MSM making too many links & assumptions between Volgograd bombing and Sochi. There are 700kms between the two cities...
4. FSB et al will secure Sochi area as much as capable; out of area events considered unrelated.
From 30 December:
5. A second Volgograd bombing today. Speculation, baseless theories or "guesstimates" are unimportant. If indeed Sochi is the target of the perpetrators - and there is no evidence besides timing - it would be indicative that they cannot reach Sochi. More indicators are required.
6. It is extremely difficult to predict "lone wolf" type events. Anywhere. Russia did have & will continue to suffer from terror.
7. Sochi fact: Last reported "terror" event in that city was in April 2012.
8. We judge with little/moderate confidence that Volgograd was opportunistic for attack based on a few facts we all know.
9. Bottom line up front (BLUF) Sochi highly likely safe for games.
Comment: The XXII Olympic Winter Games, along with the XI Paralympic Games will be hosted by Russia in the Black sea coastal city of Sochi. These two events next month are of great significance to the Putin government. Sochi is situated west of the restive areas of Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya (among others) which harbour many Islamic extremist groups and separatists. In the past, these groups have called on attacks on Sochi in order to embarrass the Russian government. There are fears that the sites of the upcoming Olympics will witness terror events, for the world to see. Regardless of who perpetrated the recent acts of terrorism in Volgograd, a large city 700 kms north of Sochi, these events are probably not linked to Sochi, but if they were, the attacks location would be attributable to the fact that Sochi is tightly guarded. We judge that any significant and successful attack during the games - especially targeting foreign athletes - would be political suicide for Vladimir Putin and his entourage. We are confident that the FSB and other security agencies have enacted well prepared, robust and appropriate measures to ensure secure events for all. We recommend that the Sochi international airport becomes the main hub for all participants and spectators for the games. We assess that the games are highly likely to be violence free, however some minor disturbances cannot be discounted.
We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries. We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
From 29 December:
3. This morning, MSM making too many links & assumptions between Volgograd bombing and Sochi. There are 700kms between the two cities...
4. FSB et al will secure Sochi area as much as capable; out of area events considered unrelated.
From 30 December:
5. A second Volgograd bombing today. Speculation, baseless theories or "guesstimates" are unimportant. If indeed Sochi is the target of the perpetrators - and there is no evidence besides timing - it would be indicative that they cannot reach Sochi. More indicators are required.
6. It is extremely difficult to predict "lone wolf" type events. Anywhere. Russia did have & will continue to suffer from terror.
7. Sochi fact: Last reported "terror" event in that city was in April 2012.
8. We judge with little/moderate confidence that Volgograd was opportunistic for attack based on a few facts we all know.
9. Bottom line up front (BLUF) Sochi highly likely safe for games.
Comment: The XXII Olympic Winter Games, along with the XI Paralympic Games will be hosted by Russia in the Black sea coastal city of Sochi. These two events next month are of great significance to the Putin government. Sochi is situated west of the restive areas of Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya (among others) which harbour many Islamic extremist groups and separatists. In the past, these groups have called on attacks on Sochi in order to embarrass the Russian government. There are fears that the sites of the upcoming Olympics will witness terror events, for the world to see. Regardless of who perpetrated the recent acts of terrorism in Volgograd, a large city 700 kms north of Sochi, these events are probably not linked to Sochi, but if they were, the attacks location would be attributable to the fact that Sochi is tightly guarded. We judge that any significant and successful attack during the games - especially targeting foreign athletes - would be political suicide for Vladimir Putin and his entourage. We are confident that the FSB and other security agencies have enacted well prepared, robust and appropriate measures to ensure secure events for all. We recommend that the Sochi international airport becomes the main hub for all participants and spectators for the games. We assess that the games are highly likely to be violence free, however some minor disturbances cannot be discounted.
We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries. We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
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